Calculating Ron Paul

In my last post (which you should read!) I indicated that the most important non-Romney/Gingrich candidate to watch during this Republican Nomination is Ron Paul. I also stated that the effects of his campaigns in IA and NH will be difficult to predict. While that still holds true, this post will attempt to play out some scenarios regarding "Dr. no".

In the last few days five different pollsters have interviewed prospective Iowa caucus-goers and come up with the same stunningly uniform result: Ron Paul is sitting at around 17% support in the state. That's up from around 12% the last few weeks. Similar good numbers in NH have yet to be confirmed by substantial polling agreement like this.

Although it might not seem like it, 17% is very good. It actually ties Paul for second with Romney, and puts him only 10 points behind Gingrich. And yet this has corresponded with virtually no change in his national polling numbers, which remain in the high single digits, meaning that this is a local phenomenon, probably due to Paul's powerful campaign infrastructure in Iowa.

In order to understand what all this means for the nomination as a whole, we have to ask this question: So, what is this Ron Paul boost due to, and will the trend continue? To try to answer this question, I have looked at three of the five pollsters (those which have surveyed Iowa multiple times) to compare this new result with their last result of these polls in October. We'll look at the 4 candidates that have appreciably changed their numbers before and after, the others have remained roughly static. Averaging (and rounding) them together gets this result:

October: Gingrich: 7% Romney: 23%  Paul: 11%  Cain: 24% Undecided: 11%

Now: Gingrich: 26% Romney: 17% Paul: 18% Cain: 6% Undecided: 9%
(Herman Cain had dropped out and was not surveyed by one of the 3 polls the second time, but the numbers still work)

Look at that! Cain and Gingrich have swapped numbers, and Paul has sapped 6 or so points from Romney. Romney? Well, looks can be deceiving. Cain having imploded (as predicted last post) and dropped out of the race was a big game changer for the race, but he had been on a downward trajectory for weeks now. Cain's support in Iowa does appear to have transferred largely to Gingrich, but it is likely that some of his anti-establishment supporters have and will go to Ron Paul as well. We also know from national poll numbers that it is Gingrich, not Paul, who has largely sapped Romney's strength, and this is probably playing out in Iowa, as well.

It's hard to be sure what a Ron Paul supporter looks like, but we know that his support is coming from a nearly even mix of (self-identified) Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, and Very Conservative voters. Therefore it would actually not be too surprising that Romney, beaten down from all sides by flip-flop allegations, might be losing some more moderate Republican voters (what few there are in Iowa) to Ron Paul, even as some Herman Cain conservatives quietly slide into the Paul camp. It's also possible that undecideds are beginning to break for him, especially now that he is establishing himself as a viable candidate in the state, but right now it is too early to tell.

Paul is certainly playing to win the very conservative crowd in Iowa, but if he is picking up moderate support as well, he may begin to pull within striking distance of Gingrich. Romney meanwhile is probably kicking himself for his recent decision to ramp up in Iowa which will serve to raise expectations of a better than third place standing come January.


So while the majority of Paul's boost is probably from Cain, he may also be playing well in moderate and undecided circles. I'll be keeping an eye on it. But now we must ask: will the trend continue?

My answer is absolutely yes. Here's why: the front-running Republican candidates, like the media, are having a hard time taking him seriously. And for once this is coming in handy for the Texas Congressman. See, Paul has a national viability problem, and he's seen as somewhat of a joke in some Republican circles, so if Romney or Gingrich were to attack him (to bring his numbers down) it could make Paul into a threat- a viable threat. So Romney and Gingrich will be reluctant to spend time attacking Paul when they are busy attacking each other; no need to elevate Paul's position to that of front-runner, right?

But this means Paul can fly under the national radar to pull a (by national polling standards, surprising) upset in Iowa and New Hampshire, since he has continued to concentrate his resources there. Its possible that he can even get away with attacking Gingrich without drawing return fire, and although I think it is a risky move, Paul probably doesn't have a whole lot to lose at this late stage. All the while Paul can continue to solidify his base in IA while Gingrich and (especially) Romney are gearing up for a lengthy nomination fight, concentrating their resources down the road.

All of this is good news for Ron Paul. It shows in hard numbers for the first time that he could actually win IA and possibly even NH, which would at the very least elevate his personal stature from side-show to main attraction, force his critics to stop laughing, and inject his views into a serious national discourse. Even if this were to happen, Gingrich and Romney are making a wise bet that the Paul campaign will run into a brick wall at SC and beyond. But maybe being taken seriously on a national stage is all Ron Paul needs to make his case to the Republican electorate- to force them to consider whether there really is something credible in Paul's sometimes rambling answers, and for him to prove to Republicans that he can win- not just the primary, but the Presidency too.